The Georgian Elections: Popular Perceptions of Leaders and Parties

In Georgia, presidential elections are set to take place this October, generating new interest in the country’s changing political landscape.  NDItech has been engaged with our local partners in using tech to systematically monitor the election there. This will be the sixth presidential election in the country since the country’s declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and comes at a key time in the nation’s politics.  The elections will take place one year after President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) party was defeated in the parliamentary elections by the Georgian Dream party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, who became the new prime minister.  This defeat represented a significant blow to President Saakashvili, who led the country’s pro-Western Rose Revolution in 2003. A poll conducted by NDI provides some interesting insights into the nature of political opinions among Georgians. NDI conducts public opinion polling in numerous countries on political issues as part of our work.

Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili continues to enjoy popular support, with a 75% favorability rating and a 55% positive ranking for his Georgian Dream coalition.  The most popular public leader is Patriarch Ilia II, with a 92% favorability rating, followed by Members of Parliament and Minority leader Davit Bakradze, the most popular opposition leader with 48% likeability.  

60% of respondents identified the Georgian Dream coalition as the party closest to them, a full six times more than those identifying UNM, which garnered only 10%.  However, perceptions of opposition parties revealed an interesting contrast.  78% of Georgians believe that it is important to have a strong opposition.  In response to which party is the strongest, 56% identified the UNM, and only 6% identified the Georgian Dream party.  A combined 31% responded “no party,” “don’t know,” or “refuse to answer.”  Perceptions of the Parliament’s performance have become more positive over the past several months, increasing from 23% positive in November 2012 to 30% in March 2013.  Positive perceptions surrounding the Central Election Commission, however, dropped from 24% to 15% over the same time period.  Since August 2012, the percentage of likely voters has also dropped from 77% to 68%.

The study was conducted over multiple waves, with the most recent survey wave in March 2013 incorporating 3,103 interviews conducted across Georgia by theCaucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC)with the support of the Swedish International Development and Cooperation Agency (SIDA). The survey examines public opinions and perceptions on democracy and attitudes toward reforms as well as domestic and foreign policy issues.  It has an average margin of error of +/- 2.5%.